STATE OF WORLD POPULATION 2023-8 Billion Lives, INFINITE POSSIBILITIES the case for rights and choices

유엔인구기금의 2023년 보고서를 살펴보았습니다. 

STATE OF WORLD POPULATION 2023
8 Billion Lives, INFINITE POSSIBILITIES the case for rights and choices

 

어제 오늘 일이 아니지만 세계 최저 출산율은 역시 충격적입니다.(202개국 중 최저)

레퍼런스와 추가자료를 제외하고도 150쪽에 육박하는 분량이네요.

중간중간 감각적인 이미지들도 볼 만하며, "출산할 권리"라는 용어도 흥미롭습니다.

(reproductive rights)

 

우리나라에 관한 내용 중 일부 발췌해 봅니다.

“I’m willing to marry if I meet someone who has the same view about marriage as I do and respects me,” says Yeon Soo, a 35-year-old doctor in Gyeonggi-do, in the  Republic of Korea. “But I don’t feel the need to get married if there isn’t anyone like that.”
She is not alone. Fewer and fewer Koreans are marrying today. A survey of 30-yearolds by the Korea Population, Health and Welfare Association revealed that 30 per cent of women — and 18 per cent of men — said they would not get married in the future. Today, the marriage rate is about two thirds lower than it was in the 1980s (Ki Nam Park, personal communication). And those who are marrying are marrying later.
In the 1980s, the average man and woman married at age 27 and 24, respectively. Today, the average ages are 33 and 31.

What accounts for this trend? As Yeon Soo indicated, one reason is concern among women that they will have to forfeit careers and become stay-athome mothers shouldering the full burden of housework and childcare. “I think the most important thing in marriage is whether my potential partner can fully respect and support my career,” she says. “Here in Korea, after marriage, a woman’s status can change. She is no longer a woman, but someone’s wife, a mother, a daughter-in-law.”
Yeon Soo is not unlike thousands of Korean women who are rejecting long-standing views of marriage as an obligation, one that comes with responsibilities for raising a family, managing the home, and being an obedient daughter-in-law, and are increasingly seeing marriage as a choice, one that does not entail sacrificing university degrees or professional lives.
An unstable labour market, where a large share of young people, but especially women, have part-time or short-term jobs, is partly to blame for fewer and later marriages, explains Ki Nam Park, Secretary-General of the Korea Population, Health and Welfare Association.
“About 72 per cent of women have at least a college degree,” she says. “I think the increase in the age of first marriage Expectations about women’s roles at work and at home drag marriage and fertility rates to new lows reflects a social trend in which young people are now investing more time in their academic background and job preparation and want to prioritize finding and holding onto a good job.”

And with fewer and later marriages come fewer children. Unlike in many other developed countries, having children in the Republic of Korea happens almost exclusively within marriage, Park explains. So with marriage rates at a record low, in 2022 the country’s estimated total fertility rate of 0.81 was the lowest in the world (Yoon, 2022).
The decline in births alarms some policymakers because it means the share of the population that is older is growing rapidly, and covering the costs of medical care and services for them “will be a huge burden on the younger generation,” Park says. “If the total population decreases, production and consumption will decrease, the economy will contract, and eventually the vitality of society will decrease.” The country’s falling marriage and fertility rates are intertwined with gender-unequal attitudes about jobs, child-rearing and housework.
Gains in opportunities outside of marriage — in the labour market and in wider society — together with increasing costs associated with raising children today mean that the traditional “marriage package”, where the woman gives up her job, stays home and raises children while the man works long hours and devotes little time to housework and childcare, has lost its appeal for many young women, especially those with high levels of educational attainment, according to a recent OECD study on the Republic of Korea’s rapidly changing society (OECD, 2019). 
And because childbirth remains strongly associated with marriage, the study says, the barriers young people face even in finding a partner while establishing themselves in the labour market also contribute to declining fertility.

번역 by DeepL >>

"저와 결혼에 대한 생각이 같고 저를 존중해 주는 사람을 만난다면 결혼할 의향이 있습니다."라고 경기도에 거주하는 35세 의사 연수 씨는 말합니다. "하지만 그런 사람이 없다면 결혼할 필요성을 느끼지 못합니다."
그녀는 혼자가 아닙니다. 오늘날 결혼하는 한국인은 점점 줄어들고 있습니다. 인구보건복지협회가 30대를 대상으로 실시한 설문조사에 따르면 여성의 30%, 남성의 18%가 향후 결혼을 하지 않겠다고 답했습니다. 오늘날 결혼율은 1980년대에 비해 약 3분의 2 수준으로 낮아졌습니다(박기남, 개인 통신). 그리고 결혼하는 사람들도 결혼을 늦게 하고 있습니다.
1980년대에는 남성과 여성이 각각 평균 27세와 24세에 결혼했습니다. 
오늘날 평균 연령은 33세와 31세입니다.

이러한 추세의 원인은 무엇일까요? 연수는 그 이유 중 하나로 여성들이 커리어를 포기하고 전업주부가 되어 집안일과 육아를 모두 떠맡아야 한다는 우려를 꼽았습니다. "결혼에서 가장 중요한 것은 배우자가 제 커리어를 충분히 존중하고 지지해줄 수 있는지 여부라고 생각합니다."라고 그녀는 말합니다. "한국에서는 결혼 후 여성의 지위가 달라질 수 있습니다. 더 이상 여자가 아니라 누군가의 아내, 엄마, 며느리가 되죠."
연수는 가족을 양육하고 가정을 관리하며 순종적인 며느리가 되어야 한다는 책임이 따르는 결혼을 의무로 여기는 오랜 관점을 거부하고, 대학 학위나 직업 생활을 희생하지 않아도 되는 선택으로 인식하는 수많은 한국 여성들과 다르지 않습니다.
박기남 인구보건복지협회 사무총장은 청년층, 특히 여성의 상당수가 시간제 또는 단기 일자리에 종사하는 불안정한 노동 시장이 만혼과 만혼 지연의 원인 중 하나라고 설명합니다.
"여성의 약 72%가 대졸 이상의 학력을 가지고 있습니다."라고 그녀는 말합니다. "초혼 연령이 높아지면서 직장과 가정에서 여성의 역할에 대한 기대치가 높아져 결혼과 출산율이 최저치를 기록하는 것은 젊은이들이 학력과 취업 준비에 더 많은 시간을 투자하고 좋은 직장을 구하고 유지하는 데 우선순위를 두려는 사회적 트렌드가 반영된 결과라고 생각합니다."라고 말합니다.

결혼이 점점 늦어지면서 자녀 수도 줄어들고 있습니다. 다른 선진국들과 달리 대한민국에서 자녀를 갖는 것은 거의 결혼을 통해서만 이뤄진다고 박 대표는 설명합니다. 따라서 혼인율이 사상 최저치를 기록하면서 2022년 한국의 합계출산율은 0.81명으로 세계에서 가장 낮을 것으로 예상됩니다(윤, 2022).
출생률 감소는 고령 인구의 비중이 빠르게 증가하고 있으며, 이들을 위한 의료 및 서비스 비용을 충당하는 것이 "젊은 세대에게 큰 부담이 될 것"이라는 점에서 일부 정책 입안자들을 놀라게 하고 있다고 박 대표는 말합니다. 
"전체 인구가 감소하면 생산과 소비가 줄어들고 경제가 위축되어 결국 사회의 활력이 떨어질 것입니다."
한국의 혼인율과 출산율 하락은 일자리, 육아, 가사에 대한 남녀 불평등한 태도와도 밀접한 관련이 있습니다.
최근 OECD의 급변하는 한국 사회에 대한 연구(OECD, 2019)에 따르면, 노동시장과 사회 전반에서 결혼 이외의 기회가 증가하고 자녀 양육과 관련된 비용이 증가함에 따라 여성이 직장을 포기하고 집에 머물며 자녀를 양육하는 반면 남성은 장시간 근무하고 가사 및 육아에 거의 시간을 투자하지 않는 전통적인 '결혼 패키지'는 많은 젊은 여성, 특히 학력 수준이 높은 여성에게 매력을 잃고 있습니다. 
또한 출산은 여전히 결혼과 밀접한 관련이 있기 때문에 젊은이들이 노동시장에서 자리를 잡는 과정에서 배우자를 찾는데도 직면하는 장벽도 출산율 저하에 영향을 미친다고 연구팀은 말합니다.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/

 

“South Korea spent $200 billion, but it can’t pay people enough to have a baby” (Hancocks, 2022)"

 

'출산율'이라는 수치에 초점을 맞추면 해결되지 않을 거라고 보네요.

돈을 뿌려도 어차피 낳을 사람이 그 시기를 당겨 낳는 것이지, 낳지 않을 예정인 사람이 낳거나, 한 명만 낳을 계획인 사람이 두 명을 낳게 되지는 않는다고 합니다.

 

Statistics released for 2021 showed that the Republic of Korea had the lowest estimated birth rate in the world, declining for the sixth year to reach 0.81 children per woman (Yoon, 2022). The reason that Koreans are not having more children is not necessarily that they do not want them but that they cannot exercise their choice responsibly given the lack of support structures, it has been reported (Yoon, 2022). But rigid gender norms continue to prevail: the country has the largest gender pay gap among countries in the OECD — 31 per cent, more than double the OECD average — and it ranks the worst in the OECD on The Economist’s glass-ceiling index for working women (Ahn, 2022).

번역 by DeepL >>

2021년 발표된 통계에 따르면 대한민국은 여성 1명당 0.81명으로 6년째 감소하여 세계에서 가장 낮은 출산율을 기록했습니다(Yoon, 2022). 한국인이 아이를 더 많이 낳지 않는 이유는 아이를 원하지 않기 때문이 아니라 지원 구조가 부족해 책임감 있게 선택권을 행사할 수 없기 때문인 것으로 보고되고 있습니다(윤, 2022). 그러나 경직된 성 규범이 여전히 만연해 있어 OECD 국가 중 성별 임금 격차가 OECD 평균의 2배가 넘는 31%로 가장 크고, 이코노미스트가 발표한 일하는 여성의 유리천장 지수에서 OECD 최하위를 기록했습니다(Ahn, 2022).

 

 

This report does not, and cannot, have all the answers; as seen over and over, population concerns are diverse and context specific. Solutions must be tailored as well. But we do know that the abridgement of rights and choices will only make matters worse. We also know that hope does not require us to have all the answers; it requires inoculating against despair and the weaponization of despair to undermine human rights. Our collective vision of the world’s demographic destiny needs regrounding in the optimism and promise of a rights-based approach. A roadmap exists in efforts to achieve demographic resilience, which seeks to enable populations — in all their diversities — to find resiliency no matter their fertility or migration rates. A core feature of demographic resilience is that solutions cannot be implemented within a single sector alone. “This requires working with civil society, the private sector, and families to adopt holistic policies for healthy and active ageing, labour market and pension reform, family friendliness, and better [migration management] as well as promoting reproductive rights and empowerment,” say demographers helping to advance this vision of demographic resilience. “Securing political support to bring about such reforms is not easy, as shown by the slow progress since the ICPD Programme of Action. However, we must learn from history and push back against attempts to fix the problem by telling women how many babies they should have” (Gietel-Basten and others, 2022). This moment requires us to realize the potential of all people. That means women educated and employed alongside men. That means giving marginalized communities a seat at every table where decisions are made. That means investing in all people so every individual, regardless of their gender, ethnicity, nationality or disability, can contribute to our collective future — a future for all 8 billion of us, a future of infinite possibilities.

번역 by DeepL >>

이 보고서가 모든 해답을 제시하는 것은 아니며 그럴 수도 없습니다. 반복해서 살펴본 바와 같이 인구 문제는 다양하고 상황에 따라 다릅니다. 해결책도 이에 맞춰져야 합니다. 그러나 우리는 권리와 선택권을 요약하면 상황을 악화시킬 뿐이라는 것을 알고 있습니다. 또한 희망은 우리가 모든 해답을 가지고 있는 것이 아니라 절망과 인권을 훼손하는 절망의 무기화에 맞서야 한다는 것을 알고 있습니다. 세계의 인구학적 운명에 대한 우리의 공동의 비전은 인권에 기반한 접근법의 낙관주의와 약속을 바탕으로 다시 세워져야 합니다. 인구 회복력을 달성하기 위한 노력에는 로드맵이 존재하며, 이는 인구가 모든 다양성을 지닌 채로 - 출산율이나 이주율에 관계없이 모든 인구가 회복력을 찾을 수 있도록 하는 로드맵이 존재합니다.
인구 회복력의 핵심 특징은 단일 부문만으로는 솔루션을 구현할 수 없다는 것입니다.
"이를 위해서는 시민 사회, 민간 부문, 가족과의 협력을 통해 건강하고 활동적인 고령화, 노동 시장 및 연금 개혁, 가족 친화성, 더 나은 [이주 관리], 재생산 권리와 권한 부여 증진을 위한 총체적인 정책을 채택해야 합니다."라고 인구학자들은 인구 회복력에 대한 이러한 비전을 발전시키는 데 도움을 주고 있다고 말합니다.
"ICPD 행동 프로그램 이후 더딘 진전에서 알 수 있듯이 이러한 개혁을 위한 정치적 지지를 확보하는 것은 쉽지 않습니다. 그러나 우리는 역사에서 교훈을 얻고 여성에게 아기를 몇 명이나 낳아야 한다고 말함으로써 문제를 해결하려는 시도에 맞서야 합니다."(Gietel-Basten 외, 2022).
이 순간 우리는 모든 사람의 잠재력을 깨달아야 합니다. 이는 여성이 남성과 함께 교육을 받고 고용되는 것을 의미합니다. 이는 소외된 커뮤니티에 의사 결정이 이루어지는 모든 테이블에 자리를 제공하는 것을 의미합니다. 이는 모든 사람에게 투자하여 성별, 인종, 국적, 장애 여부에 관계없이 모든 개인이 우리의 공동의 미래, 즉 80억 인류 모두의 미래, 무한한 가능성의 미래에 기여할 수 있도록 하는 것을 의미합니다.

 

개인적으로는 낮은 출산율이 꼭 재앙일까하는 생각도 있습니다.

(재앙이라면 누구에게 재앙일까?)

많은 노동력이 기계와 인공지능으로 대체되면 사람이 직접 일해야하는 시간은 짧아질테니 필요 노동인구는 감소하지 않을까요?